The combinative category of forecasting techniques consists of four technique areas: opportunity analysis, scenarios, cross-impact analysis, and mathematical models.

Opportunity analysis is the integration of multiple technology forecasting techniques within the context of a dynamic market stirred by social, political, economic, demographic and technical driving forces and combined with present and future customer needs and competitive responses. It is our preferred method of forecasting change in the real world.

Scenarios generally present in a narrative form the descriptions of multiple forecasts. They can provide a common context and a vehicle for presentation of very complex concepts and information.

Cross-impact approaches are designed to capture interactions between events or trends and to represent them formally in a cross- interaction model. Mathematical complexities, such as probabilities, can be deftly handled in a cross-impact matrix. With the advent of PCs and spreadsheet software the need to construct expensive models has diminished significantly.

A
mathematical model uses equations to represent the system in which events occur. It requires significant time and effort to initiate and construct, and maintaining the model with current data is a necessary, yet onerous, task. The value of large mathematical models solely for technological forecasting is negligible in the current environment.

Opportunity analysis is our preferred method of forecasting technical change in the real world.

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